How Does the Statutory Retirement Age Affect Older workers' Employment in Relation to Individual and Work-Related Factors?

Policies aimed at increasing employment among older people often focus on the statutory retirement age. Taking into account the characteristics of workers and work-related factors, we examine the impact of reaching the statutory retirement age on continuing employment. In addition to the use of survival trees, we propose a novel method to predict the probability of staying in employment based on an ensemble of survival trees. We focus on Poland as an example of a European country with a particularly low share of older workers in the labor force. Moreover, reform was carried out in Poland in 2017, lowering the previously raised pension eligibility age. Like other EU countries, pension eligibility in Poland starts after reaching the statutory retirement age. Our results suggest that the timing of retirement is determined by the statutory retirement age to a limited extent compared to other factors. In the case of women, a match of education and occupation, the employment sector, and holding a managerial position had a greater impact on continuing employment than reaching retirement age. In the case of men, the type of job contract had the greatest impact on continuing employment. Our findings indicate that the policies and initiatives aimed at extending working life should pay more attention to work-related factors and gender differences in employment.

Has new rural pension system reduced the intake of junk food among rural older adults? Evidence from China.

At present, China has become one of the fastest growing countries in terms of junk food consumption. However, there has been less previous evidence for the effect of endowment insurance on dietary health. Using the data China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2014, this paper exploits a policy, the New Rural Pension System (NRPS), that only the older adults who have reached 60 years old can receive pensions and conduct a fuzzy regression discontinuity (FRD) to address endogeneity and examine the causal effect of the NRPS on the intake of junk food among rural older adults in China. We find that the NRPS can significantly reduce junk food intake among them, which remains robust after a series of robustness tests. In addition, heterogeneity analysis shows that the female, low-educated, unemployed, and low-income groups are more sensitive to the pension shock from the NRPS. The result of our study provides insights to effectively improve people's dietary quality and related policy formulation.

Maternidade e aposentadoria no RGPS: como as mulheres com filhos são afetadas pela reforma previdenciária da Emenda Constitucional 103/2019? / Motherhood and Retirement in the RGPS: How are Women with Children Affected by the Pension Reform of the Constitutional Amendment 103/2019? / Maternidad y jubilación en el RGPS: ¿cómo afecta a las mujeres con hijos la reforma previsional de la Enmienda Constitucional 103/2019?

Resumo Este trabalho analisa como a aposentadoria pode ser impactada pela maternidade, dado que pode afetar os fluxos de renda, contribuições e benefícios. Emprega-se um modelo atuarial com densidades contributivas diferenciadas por nível de renda. Como o número de contribuições varia em função destas densidades, a idade de aposentadoria é calculada de forma endógena, com a realização de um conjunto de simulações. Foram calculados cinco indicadores previdenciários em diferentes cenários, dados por combinações do evento da maternidade, idade no nascimento do filho, duração do afastamento do mercado de trabalho e salário no retorno ao mercado de trabalho. Os cálculos foram feitos para a regra antiga do Regime Geral de Previdência Social (RGPS), que vigorou até 2019, e para a regra nova, que passou a valer em 2020, após a aprovação da Emenda Constitucional n. 103/2019. Observou-se queda no caráter progressivo das aposentadorias do RGPS devido à reforma de 2019, bem como redução na maioria dos indicadores, particularmente na taxa interna de retorno. Mas a taxa de reposição pode aumentar para alguns grupos devido à extensão do período contributivo. Trabalhadoras sem filhos e aquelas que não deixam o mercado de trabalho devido à maternidade são afetadas de maneira razoavelmente similar pela reforma. Trabalhadoras que precisam deixar o mercado de trabalho são mais afetadas, com redução nos indicadores que dependem do período de recebimento do benefício de aposentadoria.

Abstract This paper analyzes how retirement can be affected by motherhood, as it can affect the flow of income, contributions and benefits, using an actuarial model with contribution densities differentiated by income level. As the number of contributions varies depending on these densities, retirement age is calculated endogenously, through a set of simulations. Five pension indicators were calculated in different scenarios, given by combinations of the motherhood event, age at birth of the child, duration of absence from the labor market and salary on return to the labor market. Calculations were made for the old rule of the RGPS, which was in force until 2019 and the new rule, which came into effect in 2020, after the approval of Constitutional Amendment 103/2019. There is a decrease in the progressive aspects of RGPS old-age benefits due to the 2019 reform. There is a reduction in most indicators, particularly in the internal rate of return. However, the replacement rate may increase for some groups due to the extension of the contribution period. Childless workers and those who do not leave the labor market due to motherhood are affected in a similar way by the reform. Workers who need to leave the labor market are more affected, with a reduction in indicators that depend on the period of receiving the retirement benefit.

Resumen Este artículo analiza cómo la maternidad puede afectar a la jubilación, ya que puede incidir en el flujo de ingresos, las cotizaciones y los beneficios. Se utiliza un modelo actuarial con densidades de cotización diferenciadas por nivel de ingresos. Como el número de cotizaciones varía en función de estas densidades, la edad de jubilación se calcula de forma endógena, mediante un conjunto de simulaciones. Se calcularon cinco indicadores de pensión en diferentes escenarios, dados por combinaciones del evento de maternidad, edad al nacimiento del hijo, duración de la ausencia del mercado laboral y salario al regreso al mercado laboral. Los cálculos se hicieron para la antigua regla de la RGPS, vigente hasta 2019, y la nueva regla, que entró en vigor en 2020 tras la aprobación de la Enmienda Constitucional 103/2019. Hay una disminución en los aspectos progresivos de las prestaciones de vejez del RGPS debido a la reforma de 2019, y una reducción en la mayoría de los indicadores, particularmente en la tasa interna de retorno, pero la tasa de reemplazo puede aumentar para algunos grupos debido a la extensión del período de contribución. Las trabajadoras sin hijos y las que no abandonan el mercado laboral debido a la maternidad se ven afectadas de manera razonablemente uniforme por la reforma. Las trabajadoras que necesitan salir del mercado laboral se ven más afectadas, con una reducción de los indicadores que dependen del período de percepción de la prestación por jubilación.

[The impact of demographic aging on the pension systems.]

This article discusses the economic consequences of demographic aging. The relevance of this topic is substantiated. The research problem of this article is to assess the strength of the influence of demographic aging on the financial condition of the pension system in the world. Abstracts of the «macroeconomics of aging¼ theses are reviewed with respect to the financial condition of pension systems with an increase in the share of people over working age. A geographical analysis of deviations of the place of countries in the rating of sufficiency of retirement income and the rating of the Melbourne mercer global pension index from the place of countries in the ranking of demographic aging is carried out. The retirement income sufficiency rating for 48 countries, the Melbourne mercer global pension index rating for 25 countries and the UN developed Old age dependency ratio (OADR) are used as the information base. It is concluded that there is no significant correlation between the aging of the population on the one hand and the financial condition of pension systems on the other. Additionally, it was concluded that there is a certain pattern between the strength of the influence of demographic aging and the economic and geographical region. A possible theoretical justification of the thesis of the thesis «macroeconomics of aging¼ is given. Non-demographic factors of influence on the financial condition of pension systems are considered.

Does the New Rural Pension System Promote Farmland Transfer in the Context of Aging in Rural China: Evidence from the CHARLS.

The lack or instability of the pension system for the elderly in rural China has become a paramount obstacle for sustainable land transfer, namely land use right transfer among farmers, in the context of aging. The New Rural Pension System (NRPS), a pilot project that provided basic security for the elderly, was implemented in 10% of counties in 2009 and rapidly promoted nationwide in China. This study evaluates the impact of NRPS on farmland transfer by developing econometric models by employing the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2015. The participation rate in NRPS increased from 25.87% in 2011 to 80.85% in 2015, and the participation rate in farmland transfer rose from 11.56% to 24.04%. Everything else being held equal, the probability of farmers who transferred out their land increased by approximately 13% and the land area has been transferred increased by 11.2% due to participation in NRPS, indicating that the NRPS improved the operation efficiency of land rental market. Furthermore, the heterogeneity analysis showed that the probability and area mentioned above had a significant upward trend with the increase of the time and insured amount of participation in NRPS, which reduced dependence on farmland for the elderly and promoted the sustainability of land transfer. The government should further encourage farmers to increase the coverage and insured amount of pension system in the context of aging. Meanwhile, a platform to promote land transfer should be established to provide information about land supply and demand and reduce the transaction cost of land rental market.

Private Pension Systems Built on Precarious Foundations: A Cohort Study of Labor-Force Trajectories in Chile.

The success of private pension systems to provide old-age security is mainly a function of continuous individual pension contributions linked to formal employment. Using a rich longitudinal dataset from Chile and employing sequence analysis, this study examines the pension contribution histories and formal employment pathways of a cohort of individuals who began their working lives simultaneously to the introduction of the Chilean private pension system in the early 1980s, which pioneered private-oriented pension reforms worldwide. Results show that more than half of the individuals from this cohort developed labor-force trajectories inconsistent with continuous pension contributions and formal employment, which particularly affects women and lower educated people. We conclude that policy and decision makers focused on aging topics should be aware of the increasing diversity and precariousness of labor-force trajectories when evaluating the performance and sustainability of both private and public pension regimes.

Quais são os efeitos do envelhecimento populacional nos sistemas previdenciários de Brasil, Espanha e França? / What are the effects of population aging on pension systems of Brazil, Spain and France? / ¿Cuáles son los efectos del envejecimiento poblacional en los sistemas de pensiones de Brasil, España y Francia?

O objetivo do trabalho é analisar os impactos do envelhecimento populacional sobre os regimes previdenciários de repartição de três países: Brasil, Espanha e França. Os benefícios e as contribuições são calculados com base nas regras atuais e nas projeções populacionais por sexo e grupo etário, até 2100. De 2016 a 2100, o número de benefícios programáveis nos três países deverá aumentar 235%, 54% e 73%, respectivamente. Em 2050, ceteris paribus, o déficit brasileiro será de USD 188 bilhões, alcançando USD 260 bilhões em 2100. Para França e Espanha, os valores corresponderão a USD 134 bilhões e USD 92 bilhões. Em 2100 o déficit per capita espanhol será o mais elevado: USD 7.200, contra USD 5.400 para a França e USD 3.300 para o Brasil. São feitos ainda dois exercícios adicionais. O primeiro é o cálculo da alíquota de contribuição necessária de equilíbrio. Em 2016 a alíquota já deveria ser de 40% para o Brasil, 23% para a França e 32% para a Espanha. Em 2050, se nada for feito, a alíquota brasileira ultrapassará absurdos 100% e, em 2100, superará irreais 160%. O segundo exercício foi o cálculo do benefício médio de equilíbrio. Para a Espanha, haveria redução de USD 884 mensais para USD 372 em 2050. Para o Brasil, o atual benefício de equilíbrio de USD 248 seria reduzido em 2050 para USD 98. O decréscimo no Brasil (60%) é praticamente igual ao da Espanha (58%). Os resultados proporcionam evidências sobre a necessidade de reformas previdenciárias devido ao envelhecimento.

The aim of this study is to analyze the impacts of population aging on pay-as-you-go pension schemes in three countries: Brazil, Spain and France. Benefits and contributions are calculated based on current rules and population projections by sex and age group, up until 2100. From 2016 to 2100, the number of old-age benefits in the three countries is expected to increase by 235%, 54% and 73%. By 2050, ceteris paribus, the Brazilian deficit will amount to USD 188 billion, reaching USD 260 billion in 2100. For France and Spain figures will be USD 134 billion and USD 92 billion. In 2100, the Spanish per capita deficit will be the highest: USD 7,200, against USD 5,400 (France) and USD 3300 (Brazil). Two additional exercises are included. The first is the calculation of the Necessary Contribution Rate. By 2016 Brazil's rate should already be at 40%. For the other countries, the rates should be 23% (France) and 32% (Spain). In 2050, unless some action is taken, the Brazilian rate will surpass an absurd 100%, and by 2100, an unreal 160%. The second exercise was the calculation of the Average Balance Benefit. For Spain, there would be a reduction of USD 884 per month to USD 372 by 2050. For Brazil, the current balance benefit of USD 248 would be reduced, by 2050, to USD 98. Reduction in Brazil (60%) is almost the same as in Spain (58%). The results provide evidence of the need for pension reforms due to aging.

El objetivo del trabajo es analizar los impactos del envejecimiento poblacional sobre los regímenes previsionales de reparto de tres países: Brasil, España y Francia. Los beneficios y las contribuciones se calculan sobre la base de las normas actuales y las proyecciones de población por sexo y grupo de edad hasta 2100. De 2016 a 2100 el número de beneficios programables en los tres países debería aumentar 235%, 54% y 73%, respectivamente. En 2050, ceteris paribus, el déficit brasileño será de USD 188.000.000.000 y alcanzaría los USD 260.000.000.000 en 2100. Para Francia y España los valores serán USD 134.000.000.000 y USD 92.000.000.000. En 2100 el déficit per capita español será el más elevado: USD 7200, contra USD 5400 (Francia) y USD 3300 (Brasil). Se hacen en este trabajo dos ejercicios adicionales: el primero es el cálculo de la alícuota de contribución necesaria de equilibrio. En 2016 la alícuota de Brasil ya debería ser del 40%. Para los demás países, las alícuotas deberían ser del 23% (Francia) y del 32% (España). En 2050, si no cambiara nada, la alícuota brasileña superará el absurdo 100% y en 2100 superará el irreal 160%. El segundo ejercicio es el cálculo del beneficio medio de equilibrio. Para España habría una reducción de USD 884 mensuales a USD 372 en 2050. Para Brasil, el actual beneficio de equilibrio de USD 248 se reduciría en 2050 a USD 98. La reducción en Brasil (60%) es prácticamente igual a la de España (58%). Los resultados proporcionan evidencias sobre la necesidad de reformas previsionales debido al envejecimiento.

O BPC: dos avanços na seguridade aos riscos da reforma da previdência / BPC: from security advances to the risk of social security reform

Resumo Este artigo analisa as propostas de alteração no Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) discutidas no âmbito da reforma previdenciária, tanto na original do governo de 2016 quanto no substitutivo apresentado pelo relator do projeto no Congresso em 2017. As mudanças aventadas incidem sobre dois aspectos: aumento na idade mínima de acesso e desvinculação do valor do benefício do salário mínimo. São discutidas no texto, as justificativas para a reforma do BPC, referentes tanto aos desestímulos à contribuição previdenciária como às mudanças demográficas, assim como são estimados possíveis impactos das alterações propostas. O estudo conclui que as medidas, se aprovadas, tendem a reduzir a cobertura e a ampliar a vulnerabilidade de renda de idosos e de pessoas com deficiência no país.

Abstract This paper analyzes the proposed changes in the Continuous Cash Benefit (BPC) discussed within the Social Security Reform, both with regard to the Federal Government's original proposal in 2016 and the proposal by the rapporteur's project submitted to Congress in 2017. The proposed changes focus on two aspects: increased minimum age of access and unlinking the BPC amount from the minimum wage amount. The document discusses the justifications for the BPC reform, regarding both disincentives to social security contributions and demographic changes, as well as estimated possible impacts of proposed changes. The study concludes that measures, if approved, tend to reduce coverage and increase income vulnerability of the elderly and the disabled in the country.